Cape Girardeau, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

782
FXUS63 KPAH 250658
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
158 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Above normal temperatures will continue over the next week,
  with the exception of this weekend when a cool down is
  expected. Daily 80s return to start off the new work week.

- Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms this morning turn
  more scattered this afternoon. Between a half to one inch of
  rainfall is possible.

- A greater risk for strong to potentially severe storms arrives
  Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, and possibly again on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A 500 mb shortwave this morning will provide lift for an area of
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms that will move across
the FA. The CAMs then show pcpn turning more scattered this
afternoon and evening. Despite modest instability and shear, the
better upper level forcing moves east inhibiting the potential for
organized storms to develop ahead of a cold front as model guidance
has trended drier. Redevelopment will also depend on how much
destabilization can occur. BUFKIT soundings do indicate the convT
eventually being reached this evening, but the only real forcing
mechanism will be sfc convergence associated with the frontal
boundary when a few of the CAMs show isolated to scattered showers
and storms developing between 00-05z tonight. Overall, the bulk of
the rainfall will occur this morning with a half to one inch of QPF
progged on average.

The weekend will start off cooler as a 1030 mb sfc high pressure
builds in from the north with drier air. High temperatures on
Saturday will be slightly below normal in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Northeast winds shift southeast on Sunday due to anticyclonic
flow that will allow for more seasonable conditions. A few isolated
showers are possible, mainly southeast Missouri and far western
Kentucky.

A warm sector regime will settle over the FA to start of next week
as a warm front lifts north. NBM remains persistent in 850 mb temps
above 15C translating to unseasonably warm high temperatures in the
low to mid 80s as a upper level ridge axis moves over the FA.
Humidity will also be on the increase with dewpoints rising well
into the 60s with low temperatures barley reaching the upper 60s
Monday night. By Tuesday, multiple embedded shortwaves associated
with a 500 mb longwave trough will begin to approach setting the
stage for unsettled weather into the latter half of the week.

In the wake of a cold front Tuesday night, there remains the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours. The 0z GFS now shows about 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of sfc-6km shear across portions of southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. The big forecast question is the
timing of the front and if CI can occur quick enough before
instability wanes at night. Depending on where the front stalls on
Wednesday, there may also be the potential for heavy rainfall that
will continue into Thursday when the cold front will eventually push
south again. This may pose another severe risk depending how far
north the warm sector is when an area of low pressure develops. High
temperatures through the middle of the week remain in the mid 70s to
near 80 before eventually turning more seasonable by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

After a lull in activity early tonight, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will redevelop in the predawn hours
as a shortwave trough approaches. The greatest coverage will be
between roughly 09-18z, with a gradual wane in coverage
thereafter. Have handled the lightning risk with PROB30 groups
for now, but period of TSRA may be introduced with later
forecasts. Cigs will drop to MVFR as precipitation increases in
coverage. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming S
to SW around 5-10 kts after 12z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS